Mycotoxin Prediction for Wheat: Rain in May increases DON risk
Results of statistical analysis reveal that many parts of Europe can expect potentially harmful levels of mycotoxin contamination in the upcoming 2021 wheat harvest. Higher than average risk is predicted for Southern European countries, and wet weather during flowering of wheat in Central and Southeastern Europe increased the risk of regional hotspots in France, Bulgaria and Serbia.
08.06.2021Follow our predictions on mycotoxin contamination levels in the upcoming European wheat and corn harvest.
Precipitation for May in European wheat growing regions
Anthesis is the most critical time for the development of Fusarium head blight and weather plays a critical role. In May, anthesis of winter wheat progressed through large parts of France and northern Italy as well most of southeast Europe up to Hungary. For early June we expect anthesis to expand further north and east to England and reaching the southern regions of Ukraine.
In late May, very little precipitation reached the south of Europe, where wheat had already progressed into maturation. Throughout the rest of the continent, rain was abundant. Precipitation of up to 10 rain days hit central Europe from Austria to the Czech Republic down to Romania. Less rain occurred in growing areas in Hungary, resulting in reduced overall risk for deoxynivalenol compared to adjacent regions. Compared to last year, the mycotoxin risk may be higher in particular for France, which received very little rain during this period.
Precipitation for June in European wheat growing regions
For early June up to the 15th, the weather forecast predicts similar precipitation patterns with even more rainy days. However, this will be expected to reach Ukraine, which had been mostly dry before. Once again, Hungary is seeing less rain that the rest of central Europe.
Increased risk for DON
Increased risk for deoxynivalenol in southern European countries persists. The highest average risk remains for southern Europe with an estimated 46% of harvests containing deoxynivalenol levels above 150 parts per billion.
Moderate to medium risk is predicted for the rest of Europe.
As mycotoxin predictions are based on statistical methods, BIOMIN neither gives any warranties with regard to the content, nor accepts any liabilities in connection with the predictions or its consequences, if any.
How does prediction work?
Mycotoxin prediction models provide forecasts on expected mycotoxin levels in the upcoming harvest. In order to provide accurate predictions, weather conditions during various growing stages need to be taken into account, and there needs to be an understanding of how these weather conditions impact mycotoxin development in the crop.