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European Winter Wheat 2021: Dry June, but forecast increased rain early July increases DON risk in late flowering regions of Scandinavia.

Results of statistical analysis reveal that many parts of Europe can expect potentially harmful levels of mycotoxin contamination in the upcoming 2021 wheat harvest. Harvests in southern European countries have a average of 45% risk to contain more than 150 ppb DON. The risk for central and eastern European countries is 34% and 32%, respectively. The estimated risk for northern European countries is 31%.

Follow our predictions on mycotoxin contamination levels in the upcoming European wheat and corn harvest.

Mycotoxin Prediction for Corn and Wheat in Europe

Watch our Prediction Update for week 26 discussing the weather for June and July, including forecast rain for July and prediction updates for wheat-growing regions in Scandinavia where wheat has entered or will enter flowering during this period.

Precipitation for late June and early July in northern European wheat growing regions 

Anthesis is the most critical time for the development of Fusarium head blight and weather plays a critical role. In June, anthesis of winter wheat progressed through large parts of Central and Eastern Europe including Poland, the Baltic states and the Ukraine.  

The weather late June had been very dry in most of Europe. Growing regions in Scandinavia had been no exception. Only up to 4 days with at least 2 hours’ worth of rain were recorded here – in most cases much less. Compared to the same period last year this June is now even drier, with 2 to 3 days of rain less throughout the region. 

Early July is forecast to become substantially wetter. In Finland with 6-7 rainy days and 10-12 days worth of rain are forecast for Sweden and Denmark. With the exception of Finland, where it had been much wetter during this period in 2020, precipitation is about similar of what we experienced last year. If the forecast holds true, flowering crops during this period are at a much higher risk of infection with Fusarium graminearum and accumulation of Deoxynivalenol. This is reflected in the increased risk estimates of the Biomin mycotoxin prediction tool.  

Risk for DON in Scandinavia

  • 25-50% risk for deoxynivalenol to be above 150 ppb in Scandinavian wheat. 

  • 33% risk average for Northern Europe  (Great Britain, Scandinavia, Baltic states) 

  • 39% Central Europe (France to Poland) 

  • 43% Southern Europe  (Portugal to Greece) 

  • 40% Eastern Europe (Ukraine, Russia, Belarus) 

As mycotoxin predictions are based on statistical methods, BIOMIN neither gives any warranties with regard to the content, nor accepts any liabilities in connection with the predictions or its consequences, if any.

How does prediction work?

Mycotoxin prediction models provide forecasts on expected mycotoxin levels in the upcoming harvest. In order to provide accurate predictions, weather conditions during various growing stages need to be taken into account, and there needs to be an understanding of how these weather conditions impact mycotoxin development in the crop.

more about the BIOMIN Mycotoxin Prediction Tool